Toronto’s population just hit 7 million!
But what does 7 million people really mean?
Today, we are going to put things into perspective by diving into Canada’s overall population growth.
We will also compare Toronto’s rise to other major cities in Canada.
On the other hand, you have probably heard about people leaving Toronto because of affordability issues.
So how many people are actually leaving?
And where are they moving to?
I’m going to unpack all that for you.
As of July 1, 2024, the Toronto census metropolitan area reached a population of 7.1 million.
That’s an area of 5,902 square kilometres, west from Oakville, east to Ajax, north from Lake Simcoe, south to Lake Ontario.
Let’s put things into perspective.
Canada has a total population of 41 million people as of July 2024.
And the Toronto area alone has 7.1 million people, which means 17.2% of the country’s population are living in Toronto.
That’s quite significant.
Over the past decade, the average population growth in the whole of Canada was around 400,000 people per year.
From July 2023 to July 2024, just one year, what do you think was the population growth in the Toronto area alone?
268,911 people.
That’s 67% of the country’s average annual population growth.
Toronto may not be the best in this country, but it is definitely the most popular.
What about Vancouver?
It gained over 127,000 people in the year leading up to July 2024, pushing its population to 3.1 million people.
So Vancouver has around 44% of the population of Toronto.
What about Montreal?
Montreal actually has a bigger population than Vancouver.
It added 132,000 people, bringing it to above 4.5 million in July 2024.
Let’s compare the population growth in the 3 big cities from 2001.
You can see that the population growth in Toronto really takes off after 2021.
Non-permanent residents are the biggest source of population growth in all 3 big cities.
These are mainly work permit holders and international students.
The second biggest source of population growth comes from new immigrants.
Around 28% of new immigrants to Canada have settled in the Toronto area.
However, things are going to look different this year.
As you know, our government announced new restrictive immigration policies a couple months ago.
The number of temporary residents are expected to be significantly reduced.
We have yet to see how that plays out, but one thing for sure is that we won’t see the same kind of population growth as we saw last year.
So far, we have not seen any effects on the rental market yet.
The number of units we leased out during the first 3 weeks of this year is exactly the same as the same period last year.
However, we are facing some downward pressure on rent for lease renewals.
Rents generally dropped around 5 to 10% last year because of the spike in rental inventories from new condo completions.
So when tenants renew their lease this year, they tend to negotiate for a lower rent.
If you want to receive the most up to date information on how the rental market evolves, make sure you subscribe and hit the bell now.
Let’s talk about people moving among different provinces within Canada.
All 3 big cities, Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal actually all had a net loss of people moving to other provinces.
Toronto had a net loss of around 9,800 people.
Vancouver, 5,700.
Montreal, almost 6,700.
Where are these people moving to?
You bet, mostly Calgary and Edmonton.
The province of Alberta recorded a net gain of almost 44,000 people from interprovincial migration over the last year, with almost 21,000 people settling in Calgary and almost 14,000 people in Edmonton.
In recent years, Calgary and Edmonton have become popular destinations because of the significant lower home prices among all the big cities in Canada.
Calgary has a population of almost 1.8 million and Edmonton almost 1.7 million.
So they are each about a quarter of the size of Toronto in terms of population.
Yes, there is a growing trend of people leaving Toronto for more affordable cities, but the number is rather insignificant compared to the population growth we had.
With more than 17% of Canada’s population calling Toronto home, the city remains a magnet for people, even with rising affordability challenges.
Now that we have a temporary pause on population growth, it could be a chance for the government to fix some of the problems in the city.
It also allows some breathing room for first time buyers and end users to purchase in a less competitive market.
I will of course keep you posted on how the new immigration policies play out in the sales and rental markets, so if you want to stay on top of the market, make sure you subscribe and hit the bell now.
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