Is the Toronto real estate market really recovering?
It was hard to tell when we only had one or two months of data.
Now that we are done with the first quarter of 2024, maybe we can spot some early trends.
We are going to look at data from the start of 2022 to the end of March this year.
It is a lot of work, but I know you like data intensive episodes, so I’ve done it for you.
If you find the graphs interesting, give me a like!
We will be looking at the detached and the condo markets separately.
Let’s start with the sales volume in the detached house market.
The blue line is the City of Toronto and the red line is the 905 suburbs.
We had a red hot market in March 2022.
Then the market became ice cold because of all the rate hikes.
Big recovery during the first half of 2023.
Then sales volume went all the way down again because of more rate hikes.
Now that we are 3 months into 2024, it is quite obvious that things are turning direction.
The market is much more active and the sales volume is more or less back to the same level as March last year.
What about the average price?
Sometimes more activities do not necessarily mean higher prices.
Let’s check it out.
Over the past 2 years, prices went up, down, up again and down again, the same trend as the sales volume.
After the first quarter of 2024, prices have obviously changed direction as well.
The average prices for both 416 and 905 areas are back up to the same level as March 2023.
Is the same trend going to continue for the next couple months?
Last year, things started going down because of a surprise rate hike in June.
This year, we are actually expecting a rate cut in June.
So would this curve continue to trend up, stay flat or go down?
Comment below and tell me about your prediction.
That was the detached house market.
What about the condo market?
The condo market is more challenging.
With 2024 being a record year of new condo occupancies, there is a spike of condo supply, especially in downtown Toronto.
Some people are unable to close their unit because of the high interest rates and they are forced to sell by assignment at a big loss.
These things are putting more downward pressures on condo pricing.
Let’s check out the graphs.
We’ll start with the sales volume.
The same up down up down over the past 2 years.
Starting 2024, the condo market has also been a lot more active, the number of transactions is definitely trending up in both the 416 and 905 areas.
A lot more sales, but also a lot more supply.
What would prices look like?
We also saw that same up, down, up, down pattern, but there’s a key difference compared to the detached market.
During the last 2 months of 2023, prices stabilized in the detached market, they were slightly trending up.
Things were not as good in the condo market, prices were obviously still sliding down.
I thought prices would still go down a little more in early 2024 before recovering.
But the recovery actually started right away, we can clearly see an upward trend.
Prices are more or less back to the same level as 1 year ago.
If you compare them to the peak prices in 2022, we are still 15% down in the 905 area and 12% down in the 416 area.
Yes, the market is definitely recovering.
But it is not a quick rebound.
It is a slow and steady recovery.
So if you are a seller thinking that you can now sell your unit fast and at a price closer to the peak, it is not going to happen right now.
I foresee the market to continue trending upward slowly and steadily for the next couple months.
We will have to wait for the first rate cut to spice things up.
The next interest rate announcement by the Bank of Canada will be next Wednesday April 10.
Do you think there will be any surprises?
I will let you know next week and I will share more front end updates on both the sales and rental markets, so make sure you subscribe and hit the bell now!
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