How Bad is the Toronto Real Estate Market? March 2025 Market Update

March is usually one of the busiest months in Toronto real estate as it kicks off the spring market.

But in 2025, very little feels “usual”.

Uncertainty is everywhere.

No one knows what Donald Trump might do next.

Our own federal election is full of drama.

And the Toronto real estate market?

It is acting very unusual as well.

Last month, in March, we only had 5,011 sales across the entire GTA.

That’s the slowest March in at least 23 years.

It sounds quite scary.

How bad is it?

To answer that question, we need a bigger picture.

We are going to roll back 20 years and look at data from 2005 to 2025.

So sit tight, this is going to be interesting.

Let’s compare the number of sales in the month of March for the past 20 years.

This year, we only had around 5,000 sales, which is around 30 to 40% less than the previous 2 years.

How many sales do you think we had in 2021?  The crazy year after Covid.

Over 15,000 sales.

That’s 3 times the volume we have today.

Let’s go all the way back to 2005.

Do you see something really interesting here?

This graph goes up and down, up and down, in a 4-5 year cycle.

The first slowdown in this graph happened in 2009 because of the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse in the United States.

The second one was 2013.  

The federal government introduced new mortgage tightening rules.

And that was also the year with a wave of new condo completions in downtown Toronto.

There were major concerns about oversupply in the condo market. 

The third slowdown started in 2018 because the government introduced the 15% Non-Resident Speculation Tax and other measures to cool down the market.

And now we are experiencing the fourth slowdown because of high interest rates and political uncertainties.

Is history going to repeat itself here?

That was the sale activities and they don’t necessarily correlate directly with prices.

So let’s take a look at the detached houses and condo pricing trends for the past 20 years.

Did you remember how much a detached house was back in 2005?

The median price of a detached house was $350,000.

5 years later, prices were up roughly 30%, with a median price of around $450,000 in 2010.

With another 5 years, prices went up another 46%, with a median price setting at around $670,000.

For the decade that followed, there were some dramatic ups and downs.

But if we just look at 5 year intervals, there was a consistent 30 to 40% price appreciation every 5 years.

What about condos?

The story is quite different.

From 2005 to 2010, condo prices appreciated by about 40%.

Between 2010 to 2015, that growth slowed to just 17%.

Those were the years when many people were worried about condo oversupply.

I remember it was tough to sell pre-construction condos, developers had to offer all kinds of special incentives just to attract buyers.

At the time, a few people started predicting a condo shortage in the years ahead.

Most thought they were out of touch, perhaps a little crazy.

But as it turned out, they were right.

From 2015 to 2020, condo prices surged by nearly 80%.

That kind of growth was hard to ignore and it is one of the key reasons why so many people invested into the condo market in the post-Covid years.

But things didn’t quite go as planned.

Condo prices have essentially returned to 2020 levels, making it feel like a lost 5 years for many investors.

If you happened to buy at the peak in 2022, it is natural to feel discouraged at the moment.

But if you bought a decade ago, you are still in a strong position.

Now, we are back to a similar situation as in 2013.

On the surface, we have a condo oversupply.

But underneath, a future shortage may be brewing because units are not selling and developers are not building.

Are we going to see a price jump again like we did from 2015 to 2020?

So, is history going to repeat itself?

Only time will tell.

Do you remember an interesting real estate phenomenon we talked about before?

When housing prices go up, they typically happen very quickly.

But when housing prices come down, they tend to do so at a much slower pace.

And we’ve seen that play out time and time again over the past 20 years.

When the market heats up, buyer psychology shifts quickly.

People rush in, afraid to miss out and that drives rapid price growth.

But when the market cools, sellers hold firm.

They wait.  They rent.  They pause their plans.

That’s why even in a market that feels uncertain or stuck, underlying demand can quietly rebuild, until momentum returns.

Things should be a lot clearer once the federal election is settled.

So make sure to cast your vote and have your voice heard.

The market is changing fast and I’m here to help you stay one step ahead.

Make sure to subscribe and hit the bell so you don’t miss the next update.