As promised, we are going to do a comprehensive pricing analysis from 2021 to 2024.
There is one important thing to note.
The sales volume has fluctuated dramatically over the last few years.
In 2024, we only had roughly half the volume of 2021.
So if we look at the average or median price, the data may be skewed by high or low sales.
That’s why we are going to look at the benchmark price instead.
The benchmark price is calculated using properties that align with the average characteristics of homes in a given area, such as size, age and features.
For example, the benchmark price of a 10 year old, 2,000 square foot 4 bedroom detached house at a particular intersection was $1.5 million dollars in 2021.
The benchmark price in 2024 will tell us the price of a comparable house with the same characteristics.
So the benchmark price will be a more reliable indicator compared to the average price, which is dependent on the sales volume.
Alright, let’s dive into the graphs.
#1 Detached Homes
Let’s start with the City of Toronto.
At the beginning of 2021, we started with a benchmark price of $1.3 million dollars.
In just 15 months, the price climbed 46.7% to $1.91 million dollars in spring 2022.
Then the rate hikes came to slow things down.
There was quite a strong recovery in the first half of 2023, then of course rate hikes came again.
In 2024, we experienced a significant market downturn, some people would describe it as the worst market we’ve seen in decades.
The benchmark price for detached homes came down 15% from the peak.
But if you compare today’s price with the start of 2021, we are still up a huge 25%, from $1.3M to $1.6M.
Now, let’s take a look at the graph in York Region.
The trend is pretty much the same as in the City of Toronto.
One interesting thing is that at the beginning of 2021, there was a price gap of around $150,000 for a detached home in Toronto versus York Region.
But as time goes by, the gap has shrunk.
Nowadays, it will cost around $1.6 million dollars to buy a typical detached home in either the City of Toronto or York Region.
#2 Townhouses
The pricing trend for townhouses in the City of Toronto was similar to detached houses but less dramatic.
Price went up 36%, then came down 14%.
Today it costs around $860,000 to buy a typical townhouse, which is roughly 17% more expensive than at the start of 2021.
What about in the York Region?
Look at that crazy price hike.
Price jumped 48% from around $700,000 to over $1 million.
Townhouses in the York Region are now more expensive than in the City of Toronto.
There is a price gap of around $50,000.
#3 Condos
Now, let’s take a look at the benchmark price for condos.
We had that 40% price jump from 2021 to 22.
Then the graph started to look a little different compared to detached and townhouses.
In the low rise markets, there were some recoveries, they went up, down, up, down in 2023 and 24.
But then in the condo market, things pretty much just went downhill.
And that’s because of the record number of new condo completions flooding the market in 2024.
Prices came down almost 20% from the peak.
Although if you compare that to 2021, we are still 13% up.
Let’s look at the York Region.
There was a huge 50% price increase and the benchmark price even went above that of the City of Toronto.
Then we experienced the same downward trend as in the City of Toronto.
Prices came down roughly 24% from the peak.
The next 2 months are going to be really important because they will tell us whether prices are stabilizing.
If things continue the way they did in October and November, then more and more inventories will be consumed in the market.
And if prices stop trending down further, that could potentially set the stage for a strong spring market.
So how the market reacts at the start of 2025 will be crucial.
Of course, I will monitor the market very closely and provide you with updates based on both statistics and front end experiences.
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